![]() ![]() A qualitative study carried out in recent months under the coordination of Mr. However, since 2018 and the announcement of a pension reform, the "Crimean consensus" has begun to erode. Moreover, he delegated internal, economic and other affairs to the presidential administration and other organs of power. The President then abandoned the social dimension of his action in favor of a grand geopolitical scheme to confront the West. Stanovaïa, it was as if Putin could never run out of popular support, with the country forever indebted to their savior for the historical annexation of Crimea to the fatherland. As noted by Russian political scientist T. Judging by the conversations one could have while visiting the country, in the eyes of his compatriots, the President seemed to float above all other officials and powers, untouched by contingencies, like the czar in the past. More importantly, the "Crimean consensus" had somehow changed the status of the Kremlin leader. The President's popularity then reached its highest point. But the Annexation of Crimea in 2014 reversed the trend. Putin's second election as President in May 2012 a bitter aftertaste. Demonstrations in major cities in the winter of 2011-2012 gave Mr. In 2008, the social consequences of the crisis caused Vladimir Putin's popularity rate to drop for the very first time. ![]() The Russian President's current bad run is part of a trend that needs to be understood. Their frail hope is not for a change of regime but for Putin to abandon the idea of running again in 2024. Liberal circles in Moscow and other major Russian cities are beginning to wonder whether the Covid-19 pandemic is "one crisis too many" for Vladimir Putin. However, this figure should be compared with Putin’s 70% satisfaction rate in October 2019. Those close to the President may find relief in the results of another survey: 63% of polled Russians "approve of Vladimir Putin's action as President". According to a survey conducted by the Levada Institute from May 22 to 24, 25% of polled Russians said they "trust" Vladimir Putin, compared to 59% in November 2017. Rather notably, the President’s popularity continues to decline. Much like Trump on the side of democracies, he first seemed to deny reality, then privileged the economy over health and tried to shift the responsibility to others, in particular the governors of the provinces (which Trump also did). ![]() Vladimir Putin also did not turn out to be a very convincing crisis manager. The economic effects of the health crisis are further aggravated by the drop in oil prices, which alone is a serious handicap for a Russian economy that is highly dependent on energy exports. As we wrote in this blog, Russia was ill-prepared to deal with the health crisis, not least because of its dilapidated health system. The number of deaths is still low, but official statistics are considered unreliable. There is little chance that the pandemic will be contained by July 1. What is most surprising about this calendar is how at odds it is with the country’s health and social situation: Russia is now the third country in the world with the highest number of infected people. The "Immortal Regiment" march, a sort of popular duplicate of the Victory Day ceremonies, is set for July 26. Instead, on June 24, only leaders of the former USSR are invited. ![]() Putin – while also building a positive mindset in preparation for the constitutional reform vote. On May 9, these celebrations would have taken place with several foreign heads of state in attendance, a form of triumph for Mr. Removing this clause would also ensure that mandates held under the current regime would not count for the implementation of the amended Constitution.įurthermore, the Victory Day ceremonies commemorating the surrender of Nazi Germany during World War II, originally planned for May 9, will be held on June 24. The current Constitution includes an "in a row" clause, which regulates the maximum number of presidential terms. Putin to run again for two more six-year presidential terms, starting in 2024. The main purpose of these changes is to enable Mr. The rescheduling to July 1 of the popular vote to approve the constitutional reform, which had to be postponed in April due to the pandemic, seems to point in that direction. Is President Putin taking matters back into his own hands? This is what some of the Kremlin’s recently announced decisions might suggest. ![]()
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